Author: G.Aydin
Is Padel Growing - Or Just Being Built?
5 signals, 3 trends and 2 wild cards from European grassroots padel
SF4Sport Strategic Foresight Series - with Padel Istanbul Sports Club
Padel is Europe's fastest-growing racket sport. 35+ million players, 77,300+ courts, 22.8% year-on-year growth. The numbers look spectacular. But behind the headline growth, a structural imbalance is deepening: courts are being built, but federations, coaching systems and youth pathways are not.
Using our SF4Sport methodology, we conducted an environmental scan focused on grassroots padel infrastructure across Europe. The work involved three interconnected layers:
Environmental scanning: identifying signals of change, emerging trends and potential wild cards across the grassroots padel landscape.
Policy alignment: mapping these findings against EU policy frameworks including the Erasmus+ 2026 Programme Guide, the EU Sport Work Plan 2024–2027 and TFEU Article 165.
Evidence synthesis: reviewing industry data, federation reports, FIP Academy documentation, academic sources and institutional publications.
The picture that emerged is one of extraordinary commercial momentum, and critical institutional gaps. Here are 5 signals, 3 trends and 2 wild cards likely to shape the future of grassroots padel in Europe.
Signal 1 - 70%+ of Padel Facilities Operate Without Sport Governance
The vast majority of European padel facilities are commercially operated. Courts are built as business investments, not sport infrastructure. They function without federation affiliation, coaching standards, youth development plans or safeguarding protocols. In most emerging markets, there is no national coaching certification system for padel at all.
This creates a paradox: padel is growing faster than any racket sport in history, yet the institutional backbone that makes sport sustainable, volunteer networks, youth pathways, governance frameworks, barely exists.
Commercial facilities without sport governance structures represent over 70% of the European padel landscape.
Signal 2 - Women Are 40% of Players But Less Than 10% of Leaders
Padel has achieved something exceptional in racket sport: approximately 40% of its player base is female. This is significantly higher than tennis, squash or badminton at grassroots level. Yet fewer than 10% of coaches, managers and federation board members are women.
This is not a pipeline problem, the pipeline is full. It is a structural leadership gap. Women play padel in large numbers, but the coaching, governance and decision-making roles remain overwhelmingly male. Without deliberate intervention, padel risks replicating the gender leadership patterns of traditional sport despite having a fundamentally different participation base.
Women represent ~40% of padel players but less than 10% of coaches, managers and federation board members.
Signal 3 - Youth Padel Is Virtually Absent Outside Spain
Over 70% of padel players are adults aged 25 and above. Organised youth padel, structured programmes, junior leagues, school-based activity, after-school clubs, exists almost exclusively in Spain and parts of Latin America. Across the rest of Europe, children and young people have almost no entry point into the sport.
This is not because young people don't want to play. It is because the ecosystem doesn't serve them. There are no youth coaches, no junior competition structures, no school partnerships. In emerging markets like Albania, Kosovo and Türkiye, court construction is accelerating, but youth development infrastructure is zero.
The majority of padel players are 25–50 year-old adults. Organised youth padel is virtually absent outside Spain.
Signal 4 - Courts Are Being Built - But Federations Are Not
Countries across the Balkans, Türkiye and Eastern Europe are experiencing rapid padel court construction. Commercial investors see the opportunity. But these countries have minimal or no federation capacity: no coach education systems, no structured competition frameworks, no membership databases, no governance models.
Germany offers a telling case: the Deutscher Padel Verband grew from 45 to 285 affiliated clubs in just four years. But this growth was driven by existing sport infrastructure and volunteer culture. In countries without these foundations, court construction alone does not build a sport. It builds real estate.
In emerging European markets, padel courts are being built, but federations, coaching systems and development frameworks are not.
Signal 5 - The Sport With Zero Volunteer Coaches
European grassroots sport runs on volunteers. In Norway, 90% of grassroots sport coaches are unpaid parents. These same parents play padel, and many already volunteer in their children's football, handball or swimming clubs. But padel has no volunteer coaching tradition whatsoever.
The launch of FIP Academy (December 2025) and Premier Padel Academy (February 2026) are landmark developments for professional coach certification. However, these programmes serve the elite layer: they are paid, primarily online, available in English and Spanish only, and target existing coaches seeking accreditation. What does not exist anywhere is a free, multilingual, grassroots-focused programme that trains volunteers, community leaders and aspiring coaches to build local padel capacity.
Padel is the only major European sport with zero volunteer coaching infrastructure at grassroots level.
Trend 1 - Commercial Growth Is Outrunning Institutional Development
Padel's growth trajectory is extraordinary: 22.8% year-on-year court expansion, 35+ million players globally, increasing media visibility through Premier Padel and FIP Tour events. Investment is flowing in. But this growth is commercially driven and institutionally light.
Traditional European sport evolved through a federation-first model: national governing bodies created coaching systems, competition structures and development pathways. Padel is growing the opposite way, courts first, institutions later (if at all). This creates a structural fragility: without governance, quality control, safeguarding standards and youth development, the sport risks being built on commercial sand.
Padel is growing through a court-first, institution-later model that inverts the traditional European sport development pathway.
Trend 2 - The Biggest Coaching Workforce in Europe Is Standing on the Sidelines
Padel's dominant demographic is the 30–50 age group, many of them parents. These parents already volunteer as coaches in their children's football, handball and swimming clubs. They have the time, the motivation and the community connections. They lack only one thing: a structured pathway to coach youth padel.
In Northern European countries, the volunteer coaching model is the foundation of grassroots sport. Norway, Netherlands, Germany and the Nordics run entire youth sport systems on unpaid parent-coaches. Padel's adult-parent player base is not a limitation, it is the largest untapped coaching workforce in European sport. The question is not whether these parents want to help. It is whether anyone will give them the tools.
Padel's adult-parent player base represents the largest untapped volunteer coaching workforce in European sport.
Trend 3 - Emerging Markets Need a "Federation in a Box"
The pattern repeating across the Balkans, Türkiye and Eastern Europe is consistent: commercial investors build courts, players appear, but without federation capacity the sport remains a leisure activity rather than a structured sporting ecosystem.
These countries need a transferable toolkit, what might be called a "federation in a box": step-by-step guidance covering legal registration, governance models, membership systems, coach education frameworks, youth competition structures and growth roadmaps. Germany's experience (45 to 285 clubs in four years) shows what federation-led growth looks like. But that model depends on existing sport infrastructure and volunteer culture that emerging markets lack.
Emerging padel nations need transferable, step-by-step federation development tools, not just court construction.
The Gap - Padel Has Global Momentum, But No Grassroots Foundation
Professional padel is booming. Premier Padel events fill stadiums. Media coverage is expanding. FIP Academy is professionalising coaching at the top of the pyramid. The sport has never been more visible.
But the critical gap is this: none of this momentum reaches grassroots communities systematically. There is no volunteer coaching pathway. No youth development framework outside Spain. No federation capacity building programme for emerging nations. No inclusive tournament model that serves beginners, women, youth and adapted athletes simultaneously.
The infrastructure that makes sport sustainable, the invisible network of volunteers, local competitions, school partnerships and community programmes, is almost entirely absent from padel.
Padel is being built from the top down. But sport sustainability requires building from the bottom up.
Wild Card 1 - What If Padel Becomes an Olympic Sport?
The International Padel Federation has been actively pursuing Olympic recognition. Padel's inclusion in the Olympic programme, even as a demonstration sport, would transform the landscape overnight: national governments would be required to invest in federation structures, coach education and youth pathways. Funding mechanisms would open. School programmes would emerge. The grassroots infrastructure gap would become politically urgent.
But Olympic recognition without grassroots readiness would also expose the sport's structural weaknesses. Countries without federation capacity, coach certification or youth competition systems would face immediate pressure to build what should already exist.
Probability: Medium (3–5 years) | Impact if realised: Transformative | Key tension: Opportunity vs. readiness
Wild Card 2 - What If Padel's Commercial Bubble Bursts?
Padel's court construction boom is driven by commercial investment, not by sport policy or federation planning. If the commercial model proves unsustainable, due to market saturation, declining return on investment or economic downturn, courts could close as quickly as they opened. Without federation ownership, membership structures or public funding models, there is no safety net.
In Spain, early signs of court oversupply have emerged in some regions. If this pattern repeats across Europe's newer markets, the sport could face a correction that wipes out facilities before institutions are built to sustain them.
Probability: Medium (2–4 years) | Impact if realised: Disruptive | Key tension: Commercial viability vs. sport sustainability
So What Now?
These signals and trends make one thing very clear: padel's grassroots infrastructure development is no longer "a future concern", it is the defining challenge for the sport's sustainability in Europe. Three priorities emerge:
Priority 1 - Build a volunteer coaching pathway below FIP Academy
A "Level 0" programme, free, multilingual, grassroots-focused, that trains padel-playing parents as youth coaches. This creates the workforce that doesn't currently exist and feeds into FIP Academy's professional certification.
This aligns with the Erasmus+ 2026 horizontal priority on Inclusion & Diversity and the EU Sport Work Plan 2024–2027 priority on encouraging sport participation and physical activity.
Priority 2 - Develop transferable federation capacity building tools
Emerging padel nations need a "federation in a box": step-by-step guidance from legal registration to first national tournament. Germany's 45-to-285-club growth shows what federation-led development can achieve.
This aligns with TFEU Article 165 on developing the European dimension in sport and promoting fairness and openness in sporting competitions and cooperation between bodies responsible for sport.
Priority 3 - Close the gender leadership gap deliberately
With 40% female participation, padel has a unique starting position. Dedicated women-in-leadership programmes, minimum female representation targets and mentoring pathways can ensure this participation advantage translates into decision-making power.
This aligns with the Erasmus+ 2026 priority on Gender Equality in Sport and the EU Sport Work Plan 2024–2027 priority on gender equality through sport.
EU policy alignment
Our analysis found strong alignment between these findings and active EU policy frameworks. The strongest connections run through the Erasmus+ 2026 Programme Guide (horizontal priorities on Inclusion & Diversity, Digital Transformation, and Green & Sustainable Sport), the EU Sport Work Plan 2024–2027 (grassroots development, gender equality, integrity and values), and TFEU Article 165(2) (developing the European dimension in sport, promoting fairness and openness).
The convergence of padel's growth momentum with EU sport policy priorities in the 2026–2028 window creates a unique opportunity for action.
This article is a part of the SF4Sport Strategic Foresight Series by Sport Singularity, produced in partnership with Padel Istanbul Sports Club. The analysis draws on industry data, federation reports, FIP Academy documentation and peer-reviewed sources, and maps EU policy frameworks including the Erasmus+ 2026 Programme Guide, the EU Sport Work Plan 2024–2027 and TFEU Article 165.
April 2026, Sport Singularity, SF4Sport
